Methodology
The Hire
This instrument never asks anyone what they value. It shows two candidates and makes a person pick, eight times, with the variables rotated so that every attribute is tested against every other one. Everything below is the exact stimulus and the reasoning behind it, published in full so the study can be checked rather than taken on faith.
What it measures
Four things compete for a hiring decision: the degree, the years of experience, proof of finished work, and who vouched for the candidate. Each is tested against each of the others exactly once (six matchups), plus two rematches at a lower intensity, for eight rounds in total. Counting wins across the first six rounds produces a revealed ranking, which is then compared with the ranking the same person stated at the start. The distance between the two is the headline finding.
The four attributes
- Education: The degree
- Experience: The years
- Evidence: Proof of work
- Referral: Who vouched
The school names
Naming no school would mean every respondent silently substitutes their own, and the stimulus becomes unmeasurable. Naming a single school would import that one school's reputation into the finding. Instead, one institution is drawn at random per respondent from a set of three per tier and held constant for their whole session, including any replay. US institutions only for this first wave.
Every level, verbatim
Each card is assembled from these strings and no others.
| E1 | Degree from {TOP_SCHOOL} |
| E2 | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} |
| E3 | No degree, self-taught |
| E4 | Certificate from a six-month program |
| X1 | Nine years at one company, same role for the last five |
| X2 | Twelve years across two companies |
| X3 | Five years across two companies |
| X4 | Two years, plus a side business they still run |
| X5 | Eighteen months, first role in the field |
| X6 | Three years, first role in the field |
| V1 | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| V2 | Nothing beyond the résumé |
| R1 | Referred by a former colleague of yours |
| R2 | Submitted by an outside recruiter |
| R3 | Applied through the job board |
The eight rounds
In every round, the two attributes not under test are identical on both cards, word for word. Row order is fixed on every card: Education, Experience, Evidence, Referral. Card side is randomized per round; rounds one through six are shown in random order; the two rematches are always shown last, in order.
Round 1. Education vs Evidence
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {TOP_SCHOOL} | No degree, self-taught |
| Experience | Five years across two companies | Five years across two companies |
| Evidence | Nothing beyond the résumé | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Applied through the job board |
Round 2. Education vs Experience
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {TOP_SCHOOL} | No degree, self-taught |
| Experience | Eighteen months, first role in the field | Nine years at one company, same role for the last five |
| Evidence | Public portfolio with three finished projects | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Applied through the job board |
Round 3. Education vs Referral
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {TOP_SCHOOL} | No degree, self-taught |
| Experience | Five years across two companies | Five years across two companies |
| Evidence | Public portfolio with three finished projects | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Referred by a former colleague of yours |
Round 4. Experience vs Evidence
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} |
| Experience | Nine years at one company, same role for the last five | Two years, plus a side business they still run |
| Evidence | Nothing beyond the résumé | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Applied through the job board |
Round 5. Experience vs Referral
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} |
| Experience | Nine years at one company, same role for the last five | Two years, plus a side business they still run |
| Evidence | Nothing beyond the résumé | Nothing beyond the résumé |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Referred by a former colleague of yours |
Round 6. Evidence vs Referral
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} |
| Experience | Five years across two companies | Five years across two companies |
| Evidence | Public portfolio with three finished projects | Nothing beyond the résumé |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Referred by a former colleague of yours |
Round 7. Education vs Evidence, lower intensity
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} | Certificate from a six-month program |
| Experience | Five years across two companies | Five years across two companies |
| Evidence | Nothing beyond the résumé | Public portfolio with three finished projects |
| Referral | Applied through the job board | Applied through the job board |
Round 8. Experience vs Referral, lower intensity
| Candidate A | Candidate B | |
|---|---|---|
| Education | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} | Degree from {FLAGSHIP_SCHOOL} |
| Experience | Twelve years across two companies | Three years, first role in the field |
| Evidence | Nothing beyond the résumé | Nothing beyond the résumé |
| Referral | Submitted by an outside recruiter | Referred by a former colleague of yours |
Scoring
Preference score: rounds one through six only, one point per win, zero to three per attribute. Ranking sorts by wins, and ties are reported as ties, never broken silently. The contradiction score sums the distance between each attribute's stated position and its revealed position. Response time is recorded per round as a quiet data signal and is never shown or scored.
How the sample is handled
Participation is self-selected and not a representative sample. Runs are flagged and excluded from analysis, though still shown a result, when a completion comes in under twenty-five seconds, when every pick lands on the same side, or when a respondent flips on both consistency checks. No finding is published until at least two hundred responses exist in the cell being reported. Replay runs are never mixed with first runs.
Published by Ryan Vet. Independent research, released in full for scrutiny.